T-Mobile USA To Get iPhone Before Verizon?

Well, some analyst was reported by Thestreet.com that Apple is likely to go with T-Mobile in 2010.  Okay, if you know me, I don't have much use for self-serving analysts but, once in a while, one will come across with an interesting analysis.  And this one, I happen to think is workable for all parties involved.  And trust me.  For me to link to thestreet.com, well, this'll be the last time that happens.  Back to the meat of the matter.

Back in July, I began speculation about possibility of T-Mobile getting the iPhone some time in 2010.  Here's the low-down on why I had thought this was a possible, if somewhat improbable, scenario.  3G and GSM.

In the United States, if you want access to a GSM network, you've got one of two major choices.  ATT and T-Mobile.  As you know, T-Mobile is the smaller of the two.  It's in the 4th place as far as the major networks are concerned, behind Sprint.  As Apple as repeatedly said that there will be no CDMA version of the iPhone.  Conventional wisdom is that Apple will wait until LTE, the next generation wireless network, has sufficient coverage before the iPhone becomes available to Verizon's customers (both ATT and Verizon Wireless will migrate to LTE as their next generation wireless broadband network).

So why T-Mobile?  GSM.  Here and now, by going with T-Mobile, Apple will have access to another 40 million customers in the immediate future.  Plus the 80 million from ATT, that's 120 million native GSM users.  And for folks who for one reason or another want the iPhone but are unwilling to go with ATT, T-Mobile offers a viable alternative.

Just ask the tens of thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of T-Mobile customers who are currently using unlocked iPhones on T-Mobile's EDGE network.  These folks would rather use their iPhones on T-Mobile's older slower network than put up with ATT's shortcomings.

Not only is this about access to millions of more potential customers like myself but it also means additional pressure will be put on Verizon should there be any future negotiations between it and Apple.  For Apple, it holds all the cards and when it comes time to use them, Steve Jobs knows how to play his hand.

But you ask "what about this hybrid iPhone that everyone's talking about using Qualcomm's chips? The one that allows Apple to sell a version of the iPhone that works on GSM and CDMA networks while also upgradable to LTE access?"  It can happen but insiders don't think the chip will be ready until 2011.  Plus, Qualcomm's public statements seem indicate that it was still knocking at Apple's store and formal talk has yet to commence.

There are still a lot of questions about any deal between Apple and T-Mobile in the US.  One is the weak 3G network.  It was a bit more than a year ago when T-Mobile basically launched part of its 3G network with the release of Android-based G1.  As a G1 user, I can attest to the reliability of the 3G network in CA.  There are dead spots but what network doesn't?

Then there is also the question about Verizon's 80-plus million users.  I'm certain Cupertino would like access to them.  And eventually, that'll happen.  However, today, there is an ongoing public battle between Verizon and ATT over network coverage.  We won't go into that here but last week Apple joined the battle with its own commercial.  The basics of it was that Verizon's CDMA network won't allow users to make a call while surf the Web at the same time.  Ouch.

ATT's 3G network lets folks access the Internet and talk about the same time.  And T-Mobile's 3G network lets users do just that as well.

What about T-Mobile's trip down Google's Android lane?  Well, there was the G1 more than a year ago.  The myTouch earlier this year and, the latest, the Motorola Cliq.  Well, as much as I love my G1, the iPhone is a far superior device than any Android device on the market at this time.  And having Android devices has not turned around T-Mobile's fortune in the US.

Plus, it seems that Google has found a new frenemy:  Verizon.  With Morotorla, Verizon launched the Droid, the newest Android device.  And it appears that Google will continue to work with Verizon to counter the gains that Apple has made in the marketplace.

So, where does that leave T-Mobile?  It doesn't have the Pre like Sprint does and everyone has Blackberries to offer customers.  T-Mobile's place as the Android-first did not matter much.  For all the devices T-Mobile or anyone else offers their customers, they're not iPhones.

So, do T-Mobile really want the iPhone?  Does it want the headache of network congestions?  Have its iPhone users hog up the wireless bandwidth?  You betcha.  And I'm sure if there is going to be any deal, T-Mobile USA's German parent company is also in on it.  There are likely pledges by T-Mobile to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to build and upgrade its existing network.

When Verizon's LTE network is up and running, I'm sure Apple will be happen to bring the iPhone over and gain additional market of an additional 80 million users.  But for now, it's more likely that T-Mobile customers will see the iPhone in 2010 than Verizon's customers.

I've never had a Verizon phone so I can't say first-hand how good its network is and whether it truly offers better coverage than ATT.  I think they're about the same.  Had Apple and Verizon worked out a deal to offer the iPhone on Verizon's CDMA network, I'm sure all the blogs and tech articles will be about how Verizon Wireless' network was being weighed down by the millions of iPhone users while ATT subscribers enjoy an open sky of wireless broadband.

Apple is patient.  It does what it wants when it feels the time is right.  Until Verizon's 4th generation wireless network is up and running efficiently, don't expect the iPhone to be running on Verizon.  And by adding T-Mobile in 2010, it puts added pressure on the rest of the wireless network (just about every mobile platform are on existing networks) and it'll be Apple's to gain.  And in the short run, Apple will have access to T-Mobile's 4th place network of tens of millions of subscribers.

WWDC And Pre Launch - Has Anything Changed?

E3 in Los Angeles last week.  This was followed by the Pre launch last saturday (50k-100k sold, depending on who you listen to) and Apple's WWDC today where Apple unloaded a plethora of news and new technology for its mobile and Mac platform.


It's been a busy week and this isn't over by any means.  iPhone 3.0 and the new iPhone 3G S will be available on June 17th and 19th respectively.  Following that, we have T-Mobile's second Android device, G2, and Verizon's Storm 2 on deck.


But even after that, it is prudent to ask if anything has changed in the mobile landscape.  Since only Pre and the iPhone 3G S are available or will be soon, this is where we'll focus for now.  At Onxo, we like put the spotlight on issues that a increasingly mobile computing society.  Since the Apple joined the mobile device and smartphone market, there has been an increase in smartphone sales.  Just ask RIM and it's record Blackberry sales.  In fact, a few competitors thanked Apple's iPhone for bring to attention of millions of mobile users the benefits of smartphones and mobile devices.


That was two years ago.  Last year, the iPhone 3G's launch put an exclamation on that focus.  That was followed by the Blackberry Storm and the G1, the first ever Android device.


And this year, Palm wowed the tech crowd with the Pre and it was immediately billed as the closest competitor to the iPhone.  In some ways, that's true.  Multi-touch.  App store with SDK kits.  3G Internet access with push mail, Google maps.  Merely catching up to the iPhone some might say.  Others might even say that these are features Blackberries and G1s have had for months or years.


Now let's look at the iPhone 3.0 that will grace 40 million iPhone and iPod Touch users next week.  Cut, Copy, and Paste.  Push notification instead of applications running in the background.  Video and camera functionalities.  Pretty good but it is arguable that the iPhone has finally caught up with things that the mobile market has had for years.  MMS, anyone?  ATT will make that available later this summer, not even when the iPhone G S ships.  Oh, and the iPhone still will not allow apps to run in the background.


As pleasing as Apple and Palm has made millions of mobile users, both companies merely bulked up on features.  Granted though, Palm has done some pretty cool stuff with its WebOS.  Apple, on the other hand, has done well with the App store, ease of use, provided unique user experience only Apple can offer.  And the iPhone design is simply unmatched.  At the end of the day, features-wise, there is nothing new to the market.


Is the mobile future bleak then?  Certainly not?  I'm only stating that in the short-term, there seems to be technological consolidation as device and smartphone makers focus on shoring up its base and improve on their technology.  After that, what then?


There is no telling since even by today's standard as the mobile market is still in its infancy.  Hundreds of millions, if not billions of users are using traditional wireless phones with no Internet access.  And only through innovation and competition will the device developers be able to move the mobile market in any meaningful direction.


For instance, should battery technology improve and nullify the constant need to charge the iPhone or a smartphone, new and more powerful features will be available to the mobile users.


For now, it's fine to get excited about the iPhone 3G S.  Heck, I'm very excited.  Just keep in mind adding the ability to copy and paste to a modern device when the mobile market has had it for years does not make it innovative or new.

Computex: Android Devices Galore!

We all know that G1 is just the beginning and things are starting to look up for the Google-backed OS.  We're looking at netbooks, tablets, and, of course, smartphones.


Here are a couple of videos coming out of Taiwan.  Honestly, I've been waiting to see what Apple will be offering as far as a tablet based on the iPhone platform.  However, if Apple decides to take its time, the mobile itch I feel might just be satisfied with an Android-based tablet.

The first video is a netbook and some PMP.  This probably has Windows a bit worried if Google decides to make Android a more robust OS and challenge it in the lower end markets.

The second video is a tablet.  Now, not a lot going on there but the possibilities are just endless.  However, I wished they had demoed more of the input on the touch-screen and just how thick this tablet is.  And as always, the battery life on that baby.  

The third video is quite technical so you're welcome to watch it as I did as it shows how hardware companies are approaching Android development and where things are likely to go.

Monday is going to be Apple's day but the 4th quarter of 2009 might be all Android!  All I'm asking for from the hardware companies are stability, better UI, and battery life and I'll be sold.  Many Android devices to ship end of the year and even more in 2010.  Hey, don't take my word for it.  It's in the videos.

Note:  I think some Android mobile warriors are familiar with Windows-based UMPC and netbooks.  Android is built from the ground up for a mobile platform.  It'll be interesting to see the distinct directions that the two platforms are likely to go as they clash in the coming quarters.