After iPad, Who's Next?

This iPad week whether mobile warriors from other camps like it or not. But it'll be over eventually and another platform will get the attention. So who might that be?

There are already Android tablets but let's be honest, they're nothing like the iPad with years of research that Apple has put it. For the most part, its second tier companies installing Android on existing hardware.

HP and DELL might have something coming in the next few months but they aren't going to follow the same mobile ecosystem that the iPad, iPhone, and iPod Touch share.

So who truly will have something similar to what Apple has created with the iPad?

In my tweets, I blasted off a series of quick thoughts. HTC probably has things in the work but they'll in the same situation Dell and HP will be in. As a matter of fact, some Android tablets require hacks to access the Marketplace, Android's equivalent of the iTunes App Store.

WebOS is certainly possible and Palm has indicated in the past that the WebOS may make its way onto hardwares other than smartphones. Plus, Palm is currently doing some soul searching and I think it is more likely to come out with Pre 2 rather than a WebOS tablet.

That leaves Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony. Nintendo has already tipped its hand with 3DS last week. We'll know more about it in the coming weeks as details will be expertly leaked to the media. But all along, I think the Big 3 in the console market offers the best chance for a complete mobile experience.

Sony is certainly working on PSP 2. PSP is 5 years old and may be six by the time the PSP 2 is out. This leaves Sony plenty of time to answer the other challengers, including the iPad. Sony has a strong following but it's execution has been par at best. Sony will need answer Apple's upstart status in gaming but also in other mobile areas as well. I just don't see that happening.

We might see a Viao-branded tablet running Android. Can Sony integrate PSP into Android? That's the only way I see Sony entering the tablet market with a strong mobile offering. Sony will not be offering any WM7 products if Microsoft insists in Zune integration (which is also why I think Microsoft will allow hardware developers the option of Zune integration but won't insist on it).

Nintendo is one of the most innovation companies in the world. Hardware and gaming. Constantly pushing the realm of possibilities. It might offer something in the mobile market that goes beyond its traditional comfort gaming zone. If it does, look out. It could be amazing. It is likely to happen?

Now we come to Microsoft. WM7, Zune, and Xbox. Mash it together and maybe Redmond will have a winner? Sure. But keep in mind that Microsoft is a large corporation with a multitude of interests and markets to satisfy, and never mind the internal politics.

My only fear is that Microsoft will do too much. It'll cram as much as it can into a tablet and see what sticks. That might work in the past before Google. That might work in the past with Apple struggling to remain solvent 15 or so years ago. Today, it has to deal with a healthy Steve Jobs and a $40 billion cash rich Apple that is likely to surpass Microsoft's market value.

Microsoft cannot afford to wait for the market to "see what sticks". But among these tech giants, it is Microsoft that I think has the best chance to duplicate the same media/app/hardware ecosystem that Apple patiently spent the last decade building.

It is not going to be easy. Certainly, these companies can build a comprehensive mobile solution for work and play but it may not be enough just to match others feature for feature, song for song, and app for app. Microsoft, Nintendo, or anyone else will need to provide the next revolutionary (but I settle for evolutionary) step in mobile computing.

Who do you think is up next after the iPad?

Note: I left out Amazon and Kindle. Amazon will end up selling a lot of the products like the iPad and other tablets in its store. Kindle will evolve into a tablet, even with apps and media. Kindle has really put ebooks at the forefront of many mobile users, Amazon isn't what I call a traditional tech company. But hey, I wish Bezos best of luck. Competition is good.

Should Apple Release New iPhones and Updates Faster?

With newcomers seemingly arriving by the week to challenge iPhone for the innovation crown, I am questioning if Apple can afford to update the iPhone merely once a year.

iPhone, since its introduction in 2007, has become an annual event dispite Apple and its carrier partners not saying anything about it.  For its part, Apple has never divulge information for new products prior to launch.  The original iPhone went on sale in the last weekend of June and since then, the iPhone 3G and the follow-up 3GS went on sale around June and July.  So, it's safe to give the iPhone an annual product cycle.

I think Apple fans go to a good scare a year ago when RIM came out with Storm.  Then in the months leading up to the Pre going on sale, many wondered if the iPhone 3G can compete against WebOS’ Synergy, something that the iPhone lacks.

Furthermore, the growing rift, or contrast, between Apple and Google, whether it is manufactured by the media and blogs or not, does highlight the difference in philosophies between these two innovative companies.  While Apple makes no apologies for its walled garden approach, Google’s Android is generally open to developers and handset makers, within limits.

One of the starkest contrast is that the iPhone’s interface is uniform in iPhone 3.0 while Android allows handset makers to graft their own flavor of UI such as HTC’s Sense and Motorola Cliq’s MOTOBLUR.  Oh, and let’s not forget Verizon Wireless' flagship mobile device, Droid.

And while near-term adoption for the iPhone remains positive, the sheer number of new Android devices coming to the market in the next few quarters, and the likely barrage of Window Mobile 7 devices will make the mobile market very crowded.

Thus, should Apple accelerate any product cycle for the iPhone and the Touch?  Apple does have a couple of advantages that has made it difficult for competitors to overcome.  The first is the 100K-strong app store.  It is hard to dismiss the success of the app store with already 2 billion downloads.  That’s something competitors would have a lot of difficulties overcoming.  Still, Android won’t need to match the iPhone app for app.  Even at a quarter or half the size of the iPhone app store, the Android Marketplace would be a success (AM should be closer to 20K apps by now).

While the app store is an advantage competitors can overcome in time, the second advantage the iPhone has will be more difficult to for Apple’s competitors to address.  The iPhone “just works”.  I’ve heard it many times said about the iPhone but never about any other devices.

Right now, I don’t sense any urgency from Cupertino for any need to make any changes to the annual iPhone upgrade schedule.  But I do sense that iPhone's effects on the mobile market and the confusion and desperation it sowed on competitors has waned somewhat.  At the very least, traditional handset makers have gotten used to the fact that the iPhone is here to stay (maybe except for Microsoft's Steve Balmer).

It doesn’t mean that Apple shouldn’t muddle things up a bit again or put more distance between itself and the rest of the market.

WWDC And Pre Launch - Has Anything Changed?

E3 in Los Angeles last week.  This was followed by the Pre launch last saturday (50k-100k sold, depending on who you listen to) and Apple's WWDC today where Apple unloaded a plethora of news and new technology for its mobile and Mac platform.


It's been a busy week and this isn't over by any means.  iPhone 3.0 and the new iPhone 3G S will be available on June 17th and 19th respectively.  Following that, we have T-Mobile's second Android device, G2, and Verizon's Storm 2 on deck.


But even after that, it is prudent to ask if anything has changed in the mobile landscape.  Since only Pre and the iPhone 3G S are available or will be soon, this is where we'll focus for now.  At Onxo, we like put the spotlight on issues that a increasingly mobile computing society.  Since the Apple joined the mobile device and smartphone market, there has been an increase in smartphone sales.  Just ask RIM and it's record Blackberry sales.  In fact, a few competitors thanked Apple's iPhone for bring to attention of millions of mobile users the benefits of smartphones and mobile devices.


That was two years ago.  Last year, the iPhone 3G's launch put an exclamation on that focus.  That was followed by the Blackberry Storm and the G1, the first ever Android device.


And this year, Palm wowed the tech crowd with the Pre and it was immediately billed as the closest competitor to the iPhone.  In some ways, that's true.  Multi-touch.  App store with SDK kits.  3G Internet access with push mail, Google maps.  Merely catching up to the iPhone some might say.  Others might even say that these are features Blackberries and G1s have had for months or years.


Now let's look at the iPhone 3.0 that will grace 40 million iPhone and iPod Touch users next week.  Cut, Copy, and Paste.  Push notification instead of applications running in the background.  Video and camera functionalities.  Pretty good but it is arguable that the iPhone has finally caught up with things that the mobile market has had for years.  MMS, anyone?  ATT will make that available later this summer, not even when the iPhone G S ships.  Oh, and the iPhone still will not allow apps to run in the background.


As pleasing as Apple and Palm has made millions of mobile users, both companies merely bulked up on features.  Granted though, Palm has done some pretty cool stuff with its WebOS.  Apple, on the other hand, has done well with the App store, ease of use, provided unique user experience only Apple can offer.  And the iPhone design is simply unmatched.  At the end of the day, features-wise, there is nothing new to the market.


Is the mobile future bleak then?  Certainly not?  I'm only stating that in the short-term, there seems to be technological consolidation as device and smartphone makers focus on shoring up its base and improve on their technology.  After that, what then?


There is no telling since even by today's standard as the mobile market is still in its infancy.  Hundreds of millions, if not billions of users are using traditional wireless phones with no Internet access.  And only through innovation and competition will the device developers be able to move the mobile market in any meaningful direction.


For instance, should battery technology improve and nullify the constant need to charge the iPhone or a smartphone, new and more powerful features will be available to the mobile users.


For now, it's fine to get excited about the iPhone 3G S.  Heck, I'm very excited.  Just keep in mind adding the ability to copy and paste to a modern device when the mobile market has had it for years does not make it innovative or new.

Computex: Android Devices Galore!

We all know that G1 is just the beginning and things are starting to look up for the Google-backed OS.  We're looking at netbooks, tablets, and, of course, smartphones.


Here are a couple of videos coming out of Taiwan.  Honestly, I've been waiting to see what Apple will be offering as far as a tablet based on the iPhone platform.  However, if Apple decides to take its time, the mobile itch I feel might just be satisfied with an Android-based tablet.

The first video is a netbook and some PMP.  This probably has Windows a bit worried if Google decides to make Android a more robust OS and challenge it in the lower end markets.

The second video is a tablet.  Now, not a lot going on there but the possibilities are just endless.  However, I wished they had demoed more of the input on the touch-screen and just how thick this tablet is.  And as always, the battery life on that baby.  

The third video is quite technical so you're welcome to watch it as I did as it shows how hardware companies are approaching Android development and where things are likely to go.

Monday is going to be Apple's day but the 4th quarter of 2009 might be all Android!  All I'm asking for from the hardware companies are stability, better UI, and battery life and I'll be sold.  Many Android devices to ship end of the year and even more in 2010.  Hey, don't take my word for it.  It's in the videos.

Note:  I think some Android mobile warriors are familiar with Windows-based UMPC and netbooks.  Android is built from the ground up for a mobile platform.  It'll be interesting to see the distinct directions that the two platforms are likely to go as they clash in the coming quarters.