Tuesday, March 30, 2010

After iPad, Who's Next?

This iPad week whether mobile warriors from other camps like it or not. But it'll be over eventually and another platform will get the attention. So who might that be?

There are already Android tablets but let's be honest, they're nothing like the iPad with years of research that Apple has put it. For the most part, its second tier companies installing Android on existing hardware.

HP and DELL might have something coming in the next few months but they aren't going to follow the same mobile ecosystem that the iPad, iPhone, and iPod Touch share.

So who truly will have something similar to what Apple has created with the iPad?

In my tweets, I blasted off a series of quick thoughts. HTC probably has things in the work but they'll in the same situation Dell and HP will be in. As a matter of fact, some Android tablets require hacks to access the Marketplace, Android's equivalent of the iTunes App Store.

WebOS is certainly possible and Palm has indicated in the past that the WebOS may make its way onto hardwares other than smartphones. Plus, Palm is currently doing some soul searching and I think it is more likely to come out with Pre 2 rather than a WebOS tablet.

That leaves Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony. Nintendo has already tipped its hand with 3DS last week. We'll know more about it in the coming weeks as details will be expertly leaked to the media. But all along, I think the Big 3 in the console market offers the best chance for a complete mobile experience.

Sony is certainly working on PSP 2. PSP is 5 years old and may be six by the time the PSP 2 is out. This leaves Sony plenty of time to answer the other challengers, including the iPad. Sony has a strong following but it's execution has been par at best. Sony will need answer Apple's upstart status in gaming but also in other mobile areas as well. I just don't see that happening.

We might see a Viao-branded tablet running Android. Can Sony integrate PSP into Android? That's the only way I see Sony entering the tablet market with a strong mobile offering. Sony will not be offering any WM7 products if Microsoft insists in Zune integration (which is also why I think Microsoft will allow hardware developers the option of Zune integration but won't insist on it).

Nintendo is one of the most innovation companies in the world. Hardware and gaming. Constantly pushing the realm of possibilities. It might offer something in the mobile market that goes beyond its traditional comfort gaming zone. If it does, look out. It could be amazing. It is likely to happen?

Now we come to Microsoft. WM7, Zune, and Xbox. Mash it together and maybe Redmond will have a winner? Sure. But keep in mind that Microsoft is a large corporation with a multitude of interests and markets to satisfy, and never mind the internal politics.

My only fear is that Microsoft will do too much. It'll cram as much as it can into a tablet and see what sticks. That might work in the past before Google. That might work in the past with Apple struggling to remain solvent 15 or so years ago. Today, it has to deal with a healthy Steve Jobs and a $40 billion cash rich Apple that is likely to surpass Microsoft's market value.

Microsoft cannot afford to wait for the market to "see what sticks". But among these tech giants, it is Microsoft that I think has the best chance to duplicate the same media/app/hardware ecosystem that Apple patiently spent the last decade building.

It is not going to be easy. Certainly, these companies can build a comprehensive mobile solution for work and play but it may not be enough just to match others feature for feature, song for song, and app for app. Microsoft, Nintendo, or anyone else will need to provide the next revolutionary (but I settle for evolutionary) step in mobile computing.

Who do you think is up next after the iPad?

Note: I left out Amazon and Kindle. Amazon will end up selling a lot of the products like the iPad and other tablets in its store. Kindle will evolve into a tablet, even with apps and media. Kindle has really put ebooks at the forefront of many mobile users, Amazon isn't what I call a traditional tech company. But hey, I wish Bezos best of luck. Competition is good.

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